Okay, so the easy way out of the embarrassment over how badly I muffed my predictions of last year (specifically with how Denver would end up) but I guess all in all I wasn't too far off. Can't say I saw the full potential of that defense really. Sure Tebow got all the props, but Von Miller et.al. deserve the bulk of the recognition IMO.
So there it is. I may not like it, but as another season approaches, I'm ready. I can't wait to see what our new leadership has in store for us.
Sunday, June 3, 2012
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Mid-Season Predictions
Well here we are 4-4, and in a three way tie for first place in the west. All in all, I guess about the best thing I can say is that it's been a freaky 8 weeks. With the exception of Denver (who I think are far more lucky than good), the entire division is as volatile as we are. With that said, in looking at the remaining schedule for the division, my best guess of the remaining week outcomes are as follows:
Week 10
SD over OAK
KC over DEN
Week 11
OAK over MIN
CHI over SD
NE over KC
NYJ over DEN
Week 12
CHI over OAK
SD over DEN
PIT over KC
Week 13
OAK over MIA
CHI over KC
MIN over DEN
SD over JAC
Week 14
GB over OAK
NYJ over KC
CHI over DEN
BUF over SD
Week 15
GB over KC
DET over OAK
NE over DEN
BAL over SD
Week 16
BUF over DEN
OAK over KC
DET over SD
Week 17
KC over DEN
OAK over SD
If these projections are correct (fingers crossed), Oakland finishes 8-8, San Diego 7-9, KC 6-10, Denver 3-13. This is really contingent on us splitting with San Diego, but I think this is a possibility. I think they take us this weekend, but with Carson getting stronger and hopefully getting DMC back, we should be trending up. I think that week 17 will be the showdown to go to the playoffs, and with some luck we can pull that out.
Week 10
SD over OAK
KC over DEN
Week 11
OAK over MIN
CHI over SD
NE over KC
NYJ over DEN
Week 12
CHI over OAK
SD over DEN
PIT over KC
Week 13
OAK over MIA
CHI over KC
MIN over DEN
SD over JAC
Week 14
GB over OAK
NYJ over KC
CHI over DEN
BUF over SD
Week 15
GB over KC
DET over OAK
NE over DEN
BAL over SD
Week 16
BUF over DEN
OAK over KC
DET over SD
Week 17
KC over DEN
OAK over SD
If these projections are correct (fingers crossed), Oakland finishes 8-8, San Diego 7-9, KC 6-10, Denver 3-13. This is really contingent on us splitting with San Diego, but I think this is a possibility. I think they take us this weekend, but with Carson getting stronger and hopefully getting DMC back, we should be trending up. I think that week 17 will be the showdown to go to the playoffs, and with some luck we can pull that out.
Predictions for Chargers Game (11-10-11)
Four days removed from the second half letdown that saw us hand the Bronc's a win, we're facing a good team coming off two tough losses. I'd love to be optimistic here, but we have a host of questions that make me worry about the game tonigh.
First, we still haven't gotten D-Mac back healthy yet, and as much as I like Bush...and I really do, he doesn't bring the same dynamic to our offense as McFadden. I'd love to see a more even mix between Bush and TJ. Jones has that explosive element that I think Bush lacks, but his inexperience has shown a few times. All in all, I think that Bush is the better downfield runner and his ability between the tackles to make a cut and get upfield is very good. Jones on the other hand is very dangerous on the edge. The reality however is that neither of these runners command the presence that McFadden does, and allowing the defense to roll closer to a base look will make it more difficult on our passing game.
Speaking of the passing game. I know I'm not the only person wondering what happened to DHB last game. I mean, the kid is finally making good on the field, and coming out of the bye he ends up on the bench? I love what I've seen from Moore, and Ford is lightning, but DHB has really started coming into his own of late. With a new QB in the mix, why are we limiting the looks these two get of eachother. Maybe it was a discipline issue, or a bye week injury...but something doesn't feel right about this.
Now, looking at the Bolts game...here are my thoughts (concerns). We struggled to disrupt Tebow enough last week, and now we face a much more proficient passer in Rivers. We struggled to cover the likes of Eddie Royal, and Eric Decker...now we're facing Vincent Jackson, and Antonio Gates. This is trouble. With an ailing running game, San Diego is going to look to the air and my gut tells me that unless we can keep Rivers from setting his feet, he's gonna light us up. Someone on the D-Line is gonna have to step up big time here (I'm looking at you 92) and get to Rivers early and often.
I think this game is going to turn into a shoot out. Bush will get his 100, but by the half I think we're gonna need to be airing it out to keep pace. It wouldn't surprise me if the bolts put up 30+ in this one, and we won't be able to match that on the ground. This is going to be a big test for Carson, because we'll need him to put up 300 and 2-3 scores. He showed that ability last week against Denver, but he'll need to eliminate the picks for us to stay in it.
In summary, I think San Diego matches up extremely well and we're going to need some excellent play from our QB and our D-Line to have a chance here.
First, we still haven't gotten D-Mac back healthy yet, and as much as I like Bush...and I really do, he doesn't bring the same dynamic to our offense as McFadden. I'd love to see a more even mix between Bush and TJ. Jones has that explosive element that I think Bush lacks, but his inexperience has shown a few times. All in all, I think that Bush is the better downfield runner and his ability between the tackles to make a cut and get upfield is very good. Jones on the other hand is very dangerous on the edge. The reality however is that neither of these runners command the presence that McFadden does, and allowing the defense to roll closer to a base look will make it more difficult on our passing game.
Speaking of the passing game. I know I'm not the only person wondering what happened to DHB last game. I mean, the kid is finally making good on the field, and coming out of the bye he ends up on the bench? I love what I've seen from Moore, and Ford is lightning, but DHB has really started coming into his own of late. With a new QB in the mix, why are we limiting the looks these two get of eachother. Maybe it was a discipline issue, or a bye week injury...but something doesn't feel right about this.
Now, looking at the Bolts game...here are my thoughts (concerns). We struggled to disrupt Tebow enough last week, and now we face a much more proficient passer in Rivers. We struggled to cover the likes of Eddie Royal, and Eric Decker...now we're facing Vincent Jackson, and Antonio Gates. This is trouble. With an ailing running game, San Diego is going to look to the air and my gut tells me that unless we can keep Rivers from setting his feet, he's gonna light us up. Someone on the D-Line is gonna have to step up big time here (I'm looking at you 92) and get to Rivers early and often.
I think this game is going to turn into a shoot out. Bush will get his 100, but by the half I think we're gonna need to be airing it out to keep pace. It wouldn't surprise me if the bolts put up 30+ in this one, and we won't be able to match that on the ground. This is going to be a big test for Carson, because we'll need him to put up 300 and 2-3 scores. He showed that ability last week against Denver, but he'll need to eliminate the picks for us to stay in it.
In summary, I think San Diego matches up extremely well and we're going to need some excellent play from our QB and our D-Line to have a chance here.
Sunday, November 6, 2011
Loss to Denver (11-6-11)
I did not get to watch all of this game, and based on what I did see, I'm actually glad. Two weeks ago when we lost to KC, it was easy to see what killed us, and none was all that shocking.
We had to start Boller, and we all knew a heavy load of Run-DMC was gonna be the plan. Then he went down early. Bush and TJ looked good, but as we fell behind the need to rely on Boller really was the end, no matter how much I may have fought that emotion at the time. Then at the half we put it to Carson, and all I wanted to see was him getting some reps. And in my most honest assessment, he didn't look as bad as his stat line would indicate. His first pick was horrible, no argument there. But his second one was off the hands of the WR, and the third was a desperation play in garbage time. I also saw 3-4 horrific drops made by our receiving corps. All in all, he didn't look amazing, but having only been active for 3 days and only knowing 15 plays...I thought he looked good.
Fast forward through the bye week and we have Denver and Tebow coming into the black hole. My expectations coming in were really high, even with McFadden out. So what happened?
I first have to put a part of this on Palmer. After two weeks, I don't expect a Peyton level of knowledge of the offense, but I do expect better than a three INT performance...particularly in a close game. Erasing those picks and I think we win this game.
Second, I have to point out how horrible we have been with giving up big plays. I counted 7 (8 if you count the punt return) plays of greater than 20 yards. I could almost excuse a couple big pass plays, but 4 runs over 20? That is an embarassment. I've heard a LOT of good stuff from the media about our defensive front, but this problem has been systemic from what I've seen. We've done a good job of pressuring the QB this year, but our run defense has struggled, and our secondary has been bad.
Finally, and it can't be overstated. Fifteen penalties. Fifteen?!?! WTF Hue. I mean, I know we're perenially contenders for the most yellow thrown, but this is ridiculous. In the old days, I always felt like the bulk of our penalties were of the aggressive, over the top variety. Now it's one stupid penalty after the other. Whether it's the delay of game and then the next play a 12 men penalty. Or Taiwan with two consecutive FG penalties that gave Denver a first down. We WILL NOT become a competitive football team until Hue gets a hold on this.
So here we are 4-4, tied at the top (sort of) with a crack at SD on Thursday to keep ourselves there. But will we? I doubt it. The bolts didn't look great today, but they went toe to toe against the only undefeated team left in the league and despite another sketchy performance by Rivers were in it right up to the end. Here's the number that scares me. 7-141-3. That's V-Jax line with the likes of Charles Woodson on the defense. Or maybe the 8-96-1 that Gates put up. If we can't stop Tebow-Royal, how can we match up on these two. I don't like to be defeatist, but Denver's scheme is painfully obvious and we struggled to defend it. My hope here is that Hue starts to focus on the basics, and starts to make an impact on the penalty front.
We had to start Boller, and we all knew a heavy load of Run-DMC was gonna be the plan. Then he went down early. Bush and TJ looked good, but as we fell behind the need to rely on Boller really was the end, no matter how much I may have fought that emotion at the time. Then at the half we put it to Carson, and all I wanted to see was him getting some reps. And in my most honest assessment, he didn't look as bad as his stat line would indicate. His first pick was horrible, no argument there. But his second one was off the hands of the WR, and the third was a desperation play in garbage time. I also saw 3-4 horrific drops made by our receiving corps. All in all, he didn't look amazing, but having only been active for 3 days and only knowing 15 plays...I thought he looked good.
Fast forward through the bye week and we have Denver and Tebow coming into the black hole. My expectations coming in were really high, even with McFadden out. So what happened?
I first have to put a part of this on Palmer. After two weeks, I don't expect a Peyton level of knowledge of the offense, but I do expect better than a three INT performance...particularly in a close game. Erasing those picks and I think we win this game.
Second, I have to point out how horrible we have been with giving up big plays. I counted 7 (8 if you count the punt return) plays of greater than 20 yards. I could almost excuse a couple big pass plays, but 4 runs over 20? That is an embarassment. I've heard a LOT of good stuff from the media about our defensive front, but this problem has been systemic from what I've seen. We've done a good job of pressuring the QB this year, but our run defense has struggled, and our secondary has been bad.
Finally, and it can't be overstated. Fifteen penalties. Fifteen?!?! WTF Hue. I mean, I know we're perenially contenders for the most yellow thrown, but this is ridiculous. In the old days, I always felt like the bulk of our penalties were of the aggressive, over the top variety. Now it's one stupid penalty after the other. Whether it's the delay of game and then the next play a 12 men penalty. Or Taiwan with two consecutive FG penalties that gave Denver a first down. We WILL NOT become a competitive football team until Hue gets a hold on this.
So here we are 4-4, tied at the top (sort of) with a crack at SD on Thursday to keep ourselves there. But will we? I doubt it. The bolts didn't look great today, but they went toe to toe against the only undefeated team left in the league and despite another sketchy performance by Rivers were in it right up to the end. Here's the number that scares me. 7-141-3. That's V-Jax line with the likes of Charles Woodson on the defense. Or maybe the 8-96-1 that Gates put up. If we can't stop Tebow-Royal, how can we match up on these two. I don't like to be defeatist, but Denver's scheme is painfully obvious and we struggled to defend it. My hope here is that Hue starts to focus on the basics, and starts to make an impact on the penalty front.
Battle Hymn of The Nation
The Autumn wind is a pirate
Blustering in from sea
With a rollicking song he sweeks along
Swaggering boisterously
His face is weatherbeaten
He wears a hooded sash
With a silver hat about his head
And a bristling black mustache
He growls as he storms the country
A villain big and bold
And the trees all shake and quiver and quake
As he robs them of their gold
The Autumn wind is a RAIDER
Pillaging just for fun
He'll knock you 'round and upsidedown
And laugh wehn he's conquored and won
Blustering in from sea
With a rollicking song he sweeks along
Swaggering boisterously
His face is weatherbeaten
He wears a hooded sash
With a silver hat about his head
And a bristling black mustache
He growls as he storms the country
A villain big and bold
And the trees all shake and quiver and quake
As he robs them of their gold
The Autumn wind is a RAIDER
Pillaging just for fun
He'll knock you 'round and upsidedown
And laugh wehn he's conquored and won
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